SI-005-01 :
Import Dependency &
Supply Concentration Risk

Situation

Thailand relies heavily on imported crude oil and natural gas, particularly oil, which is almost entirely sourced from abroad. Meanwhile, domestic natural gas production has been steadily declining, leading to a significant increase in reliance on LNG imports.

The country’s energy import structure remains concentrated in certain regions, particularly the Middle East, a major global energy-producing hub. As a result, the risk is not merely about dependency on imports, but also about overreliance on regions with high geopolitical uncertainty.

In the event of conflicts, sanctions, or instability in key producing regions, supply could be disrupted or constrained, directly impacting Thailand as an importing country—both in terms of availability and pricing.

Furthermore, high import dependency weakens Thailand’s bargaining power in global energy markets, especially during periods of high demand or tight supply, where exporting countries are able to dictate less favorable terms.

Therefore, Thailand’s energy import dependency should not be viewed merely as a resource limitation, but as a structural vulnerability embedded within the country’s energy system.

Shift

The world is entering an era where supply security has become more critical than mere resource availability, particularly in energy markets increasingly shaped by geopolitical forces.

Energy-producing nations are beginning to use their resources as strategic tools—controlling production levels, influencing pricing mechanisms, and selecting trade partners based on political alignment.

At the same time, global supply chains are becoming more fragmented, and access to energy is no longer determined solely by market mechanisms, but increasingly influenced by geopolitical alignment.

As a result, risks associated with supply concentration are intensifying, as disruptions in key regions can propagate rapidly across the global system.

For import-dependent countries like Thailand, this shift transforms dependency from a passive condition into a strategic risk that must be actively managed.

Advantage

Although Thailand relies heavily on energy imports, the lack of strong dependence on domestic resources provides flexibility in selecting and diversifying supply sources.

Thailand can adopt a diversification strategy by sourcing energy from multiple regions, including the Middle East, Asia, and the global LNG market, thereby reducing exposure to any single source.

In addition, Thailand maintains relatively balanced economic and diplomatic relationships with multiple countries, which can serve as leverage in negotiating long-term energy partnerships.

Existing infrastructure—such as ports, refineries, and import systems—already provides a foundation that can support adjustments in supply sources, if managed strategically.

Ultimately, by developing a diversified and balanced energy portfolio, Thailand can reduce systemic vulnerability while enhancing its bargaining power in the global energy landscape.

Implication

Thailand must recognize that energy import dependency is an unavoidable structural reality in the long term, and shift its mindset from attempting to reduce dependency to effectively managing it.

Energy policy should prioritize systematic source diversification, avoiding excessive reliance on any single region or supplier.

The government must take an active role in shaping long-term energy procurement strategies, including fostering international partnerships to secure stable and diversified supply sources.

At the same time, Thailand needs to develop tools and frameworks to continuously assess and manage risks associated with supply concentration, ensuring the ability to adapt to rapidly changing global conditions.

Without a deliberate and strategic approach to managing supply concentration risks, Thailand will remain vulnerable to external shocks that can cascade across the economy and undermine national stability.

Action Layer