SI-005 :
Hydrocarbon Dependency &
Fuel Security

Situation

Thailand remains heavily dependent on oil and natural gas as the primary sources of energy across key sectors, particularly in transportation, industry, and power generation. Despite ongoing efforts to expand renewable energy, the overall energy structure continues to be fundamentally tied to fossil fuels in the medium to long term.

At the same time, domestic energy resources are gradually declining, increasing the country’s reliance on imported crude oil, natural gas, and LNG. As a result, Thailand’s energy risk is no longer determined solely by internal factors, but is increasingly exposed to global market volatility, geopolitical dynamics, and the stability of international energy supply chains.

Fluctuations in global oil prices, vulnerabilities in critical transportation routes, and geopolitical uncertainties can directly impact national energy costs, which in turn affect inflation, production expenses, and overall economic competitiveness.

Therefore, fuel security should not be viewed merely as an issue of cost management, but as a strategic concern tied to national economic sovereignty, stability, and the ability to withstand global uncertainties in the long run.

Shift

The global energy landscape is undergoing a structural transformation, not by eliminating hydrocarbons, but by redefining their role within a more complex and uncertain system. While many countries are accelerating the transition toward renewable energy, oil and natural gas continue to serve as the backbone of global energy supply, particularly in transportation, heavy industry, and as baseload support for power systems.

At the same time, the hydrocarbon market is becoming increasingly shaped by geopolitical tensions, supply chain fragmentation, and strategic competition among major powers. Energy is no longer treated purely as a commodity, but as a geopolitical instrument—used to exert influence, manage alliances, and in some cases, apply economic pressure.

This shift is further intensified by the growing concentration of supply in specific regions, combined with chokepoints in global transportation routes such as key maritime passages. Disruptions—whether from conflict, sanctions, or logistical constraints—can rapidly propagate through the global system, creating price shocks and supply instability that affect importing countries disproportionately.

In parallel, the rise of LNG as a globally traded energy source has introduced both flexibility and new vulnerabilities. While LNG enables diversification of supply, it also exposes countries to spot market volatility, infrastructure constraints, and competition for limited cargo during periods of global shortage.

For countries like Thailand, this evolving landscape means that energy dependency is no longer a static condition, but a dynamic risk shaped by external forces beyond national control. The challenge is no longer simply securing sufficient supply, but navigating an increasingly complex system where energy availability, pricing, and reliability are deeply interconnected with global power structures.

Advantage

Although Thailand faces risks from its reliance on imported oil and natural gas, this hydrocarbon-based structure also presents strategic opportunities if managed with a systemic and forward-looking approach.

Thailand’s geographic location positions it favorably to become a regional energy hub, situated near major global energy supply routes and within reach of key producing regions such as the Middle East. This creates potential for developing infrastructure in importation, storage, and distribution, not only to support domestic demand but also to serve neighboring countries.

In addition, Thailand already possesses a relatively developed energy infrastructure, including refineries, storage facilities, and natural gas networks. These assets can be further optimized to enhance flexibility in sourcing, strengthen strategic reserves, and support the development of LNG-related capabilities at a regional scale.

Moreover, a certain level of import dependency can be leveraged to diversify energy sources across multiple supplier countries, reducing exposure to disruptions from any single region. With a well-designed procurement and risk management strategy, this diversification can significantly improve overall energy resilience.

Ultimately, if Thailand can evolve from being merely an energy consumer to a capable energy system manager—across importation, storage, refining, distribution, and regional integration—it can transform dependency into strategic leverage and establish a more influential role within the regional energy landscape.

Implication

Thailand can no longer treat hydrocarbon dependency as a temporary condition to be gradually reduced, but must recognize it as a structural reality that requires active and strategic management. Oil and natural gas will continue to play a critical role in sustaining the economy for the foreseeable future, making fuel security a permanent priority rather than a transitional concern.

This implies that energy policy must shift from a cost-optimization mindset toward a resilience-oriented framework, where stability of supply, diversification of sources, and strategic control over key infrastructure become central objectives. Minimizing short-term costs alone is no longer sufficient in a world where supply disruptions and price shocks can emerge rapidly and unpredictably.

Furthermore, the government must adopt a more proactive role in shaping national energy security, including the development of strategic reserves, long-term procurement strategies, and the strengthening of domestic infrastructure such as refineries, LNG terminals, and storage systems. Energy security should be integrated into national security planning, rather than treated as a standalone sectoral issue.

At the same time, Thailand must enhance its ability to navigate global energy markets, including managing exposure to price volatility, securing access to diverse supply channels, and building institutional capabilities to respond to geopolitical disruptions. This requires not only physical infrastructure, but also regulatory agility and strategic coordination across multiple agencies.

Ultimately, the implication is clear: without a deliberate and coordinated approach to managing hydrocarbon dependency, Thailand remains vulnerable to external shocks that can cascade through the entire economy. Fuel security, therefore, must be elevated to a core pillar of national strategy—on par with economic stability and sovereignty.

Strategic Direction 

Thailand must transition from being an energy-dependent nation to becoming a strategic energy system manager, with a focus on building resilience, flexibility, and bargaining power in an increasingly volatile and uncertain global energy landscape.

A key direction is to establish a diversified and balanced fuel sourcing strategy, reducing overreliance on any single supplier or region, while developing systematic capabilities to manage both price volatility and supply risks.

At the same time, Thailand should accelerate the enhancement of its energy infrastructure to improve system flexibility, including the expansion of strategic reserves, multi-source LNG import capacity, and the optimization of refining and storage systems to better withstand global disruptions.

Another critical direction is to strengthen institutional capacity in national energy governance, encompassing long-term planning, cross-agency coordination, and the ability to make timely and strategic decisions. Energy must be elevated as a core component of national security policy.

Ultimately, Thailand should aim to position itself as a regional energy system manager, leveraging its geographic advantage and existing infrastructure to facilitate energy importation, storage, and distribution across the region—thereby transforming its role from a passive importer to an active and influential player in the regional energy landscape.

Sub-Insight Layer